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2. CIMB’s ASEAN Exposure (The Vulnerability & Mitigation)
This is where the real risk lies in your money allocation. CIMB is not just a Malaysian bank; it is the fifth-largest bank in ASEAN, with massive footprints in Indonesia and Thailand—both of which are net oil importers.
The Bearish View: Sustained high energy costs in Thailand and Indonesia will squeeze household purchasing power and tighten SME cash flows, which traditionally leads to higher Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)
The Bullish Reality (Q1 2026 Data): Despite these geopolitical headwinds, CIMB's latest Q1 2026 print proved their resilience. Their Gross Impaired Loans (GIL) ratio held firm at a pristine 1.7%. Furthermore, their Net Interest Margins (NIM) actually expanded sequentially in Singapore (+12 bps) and Thailand (+5 bps).